NCAA D1 Outdoor National Championship Predictions

With the national meet starting tomorrow Jacob and Aidan are predicting the winner for each of the middle distance to distance events. Read our picks below and let us know what you think on our Instagram page https://www.instagram.com/theextramile_1/

Men’s 800:

Jacob: Colin Sahlman.

There is arguably not an athlete in the NCAA more versatile than the NAU senior. During indoors, despite winning the Milrose 800 he said he wanted the challenge of the longer events at NCAAs, and won the DMR and 3000. Now, Sahlman is back to focusing on his signature event and I think no matter how this race is run, he will dictate the moves and come out on top. 

Aidan: Allon Clay

Coming off a new PB in the semifinals in the east region and a 3rd place finish in the finals Clay is peaking at the right time. Clay finished 3rd indoors behind the Arkansas duo who will be back so he will be looking for revenge. The 2nd heat of the prelims is a tall task with 5 of the 8 athletes being in the top 10 this outdoor season but Clay is hungry to bring a 800 title to State College and prove Penn State as 800U.

Women’s 800:

Aidan: Juliette Whittaker 

Whittaker hasn’t run the fastest times this year but she has taken care of business and has the experience at the NCAA national championship level to back another title push. Sanu Jallow has been on a heater but Whittaker has risen to the top when it comes time to take home some hardware. The 3 time champ has one last run in a Stanford singlet this weekend and it’s only fitting that it ends in a win.

Jacob: Makayla Paige. 

After seemingly taking a step this past Indoor season and finishing 7th, Paige has looked more and more like her usual self this Outdoor season. After opening in a huge 1500 personal best of 4:12, Paige has continued to improve, running a personal best of 1:58.98 to win the East Region, as well as getting her first ACC title. 

Men’s 1500: 

Jacob: Simeon Birnbaum.

There is simply no way that Birnbaum gets denied his first NCAA title, especially on his home track where he set the NCAA collegiate record earlier this season. Birnbaum has the fastest time in the field, and his 1:44 800 and ability to close sub-50 in tactical 1500s proves that even if he chooses to run tactically to save juice for the 5000, nobody will be running away from him. 

Aidan: George Couttie

Couttie has been on a heater this year running 7 new personal bests, he got going with a top 10 finish in cross and then placing 2nd in the indoor mile. The only right way to cap off a career year would be a national championship in the 1500 and he is very capable of doing so.The NCAA record curse might be upon Birnbaum and if he’s not able to shake it like previous record holders before him then Couttie has more than just a shot at winning it all. 

Women’s 1500: 

Aidan: Silan Ayyildiz

Ayyildiz has proven her versatility throughout her career with multiple top 10 cross country national finishes and scoring in the 1500/Mile at the last 3 national meets. Flanagan has consistently been able to get her team tapered for championship season and I think it will all come together for the Oregon senior this time around at her home track.

Jacob: Sadie Engelhardt 

Jane Hedengren is not the only freshman phenom in Women’s collegiate distance running. Engelhardt has kind of flown under the radar because of Hedengren, but she was able to finish third Indoors in the Mile, and is currently ranked third in the nation in the 1500 with a 4:03.28, less than one second behind the top ranked Rosemary Longisa. Engelhardt finished second at Regionals, at ACCs and at the Wake Forest and Duke Invitationals this season, I think she flips the script this meet and gets a win to cap off a great freshman season. 

Men’s 3000 steeple: 

Jacob: Nate Mountain

There is a lot of inexperience in this field in terms of high-level championship racing, and Mountain has that experience. After getting second in 2024 in this event, he red-shirted in 2025, and now as a 5th year is ranked second in the NCAA with an 8:11.92, good for third all-time. Taking down the top ranked Geoffery Kirwa will not be easy, but outside of a second place finish last spring, Kirwa has struggled in championship racing and has only steepled once since his record setting performance at Bryan Clay. 

Aidan: Geoffery Kirwa

Kirwa at the Bryan Clay invitational posted a 5 second PB and improved his NCAA No. 2 all time in the steeplechase with an outstanding 8:08.10. Kirwa got 2nd last year just behind BYU Olympian James Corrigan but is the top returner from that field after Corrigan failed to qualify for the national meet. This race is Kirwa’s to lose. 

Women’s 3000 steeple

Aidan: Angelina Napoleon 

Napoleon is no stranger to the big stage, she has made the outdoor national meet in the steeplechase every year of her career, ran at diamond league in and competed at 2025 world championship. Napoleon has a big lead in terms of a personal best compared to the rest of the field and is having a solid season with a meet record at Penn Relays. The New York native lives on the big stages and if she proves to be in similar shape as last year, the steeple title is coming her way.

Jacob: Sydney Masciarelli

Championship racing is all about peaking at the right time, and the UNC senior is looking like she is doing just that. She ran 9:39.51, a nearly 10 second personal best and a 16 second season's best to win the East Region. I think this event is wide open this year, and considering Masciarelli got a great heat draw, I think the cards are stacked in her favor this meet. 

Men’s 5000:

Jacob: Marco Langon 

June has arrived. The men’s 5000 is arguably the most stacked event in the entire meet, with a mix of athletes doubling back from the 1500 and 10000 and a few athletes such as Langon coming in fresh. I think knowing that he is fresh, Marco is going to position himself towards the front of the pack, not being afraid of leading to keep the pace honest. Marco has been so close the last few championships, he has looked excellent this entire season and I think this is his meet. His confidence has been at an all-time high after the Penn Relays 4xMile, and I do not see him ending his NCAA career on a loss. 

Aidan: Tayvon Kitchen

The true freshman has shown guts at his first two national championships planting himself towards the front and making brave moves. Kitchen will be focusing on just the 5000 this year unlike some of the other favorites like Habtom Samuel and Denis Kipngetich. I can see Kitchen being fresh making a powerful move to bring an outdoor 5000 title to BYU for the first time since his coach Ed Eyestone won in 1985.

Women’s 5000:

Aidan: Jane Hendegren 

I have a BYU sweep in the 5000, there is no doubt that Jane is the favorite but she is coming off the 10000 and Doris Lemngole will be fresh. Jane will have to fend off the likes of Lemngole and Pamela Kosgei but I think Jane will run away with this one, she has over 10 seconds on them when comparing season bests and she has been dominant over 5000 meters. The Utah native will be drowning in oxygen in Eugene and will take care of business.

Jacob: Doris Lemngole

Doris has only raced three times this Outdoor season, with all three being in the postseason. However, I have zero doubts about her fitness, as she won all three races including running the fastest time in the country in the steeple at the SEC Championships. Doris could have gone for the steeple, 5000 double, but she is going to be fresh for the 5000. I think she will push the pace early in the race, and Hedengren won’t be able to cover coming off the 10000 two days prior. 

Men’s 10000: 

Jacob: Habtom Samuel 

I wanted to try and convince myself that there was an upset to be had here, but Samuel has been virtually unbeatable all year, even on the professional level. He is coming off a sub-13 5k a couple weeks ago at Sound Running, and I think he can jog to a win here. I predict a slow first half with a slow burn that sets up a pretty anit-climatic ending. 

Aidan: Ernest Cheruiyot 

Cheruiyot placed 3rd last year in the 10000, he made a strong move with 400 meters to go getting some distance on both New Mexico favorites. Unfortunately for him he was caught but if he plays it tactically and maybe makes his move with 200 to go Cheruiyot has a chance to surprise the favorite Habtom Samuel.

Women’s 10000: 

Aidan: Pamela Kosgei

The only other athlete besides Jane Hedengren to be under the 31 minute barrier. Kosgei is the only major threat to Jane as long as they don’t jog 9000 meters of the race. Kosgei earned both the 5000 and 10000 meter titles last year at the outdoor national meet and will be trying to double back again. The higher the distance the better for Kosgei, watch out for the reigning champion as she tries to defend her title.

Jacob: Jane Hedengren

Same thing with the men, I tried to convince myself that there would be an upset, but it just is not happening. Hedengren has been so dominant since placing second in cross country, and despite her season best being only three seconds faster than second seed Pamela Kosgei, Hedengren took care of business against her easily at the Indoor Championship, and I think it will be more of the same this week.